Possible scenario
Offensive Bogged Down
20% Chance
Russian forces adapt quickly with ground-penetrating sensors, thermobaric munitions, and counter-tunneling units. The operation then resembles earlier failed mechanized pushes: innovative tactics but insufficient scale to break layered defenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- AVAV-1.0%
- CAT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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