Possible scenario
EU Credibility Test
22% Chance
The European Commission and ratings agencies focus on whether a 2032 deficit target is compatible with France’s high debt burden and EU fiscal framework. The key issue is not the 3% target itself, but whether France can show credible annual structural adjustment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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