Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a contained diplomatic dispute in which Tehran signals displeasure over French academic and visa activity without breaking relations. France protests the closure, but both governments avoid jeopardizing recently restored consular contacts after the April 2026 hostage releases.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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