Possible scenario
Lula Narrowly Wins
38% Chance
Lula edges Flávio Bolsonaro in a very close runoff, helped by incumbency, anti-Bolsonaro turnout, and institutional confidence in the Superior Electoral Court. Markets treat the result as broad policy continuity, though state-controlled companies remain sensitive to interventionist pricing and credit policies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.