Possible scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro Wins
34% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly defeats Lula, producing a major political comeback for the Bolsonaro family despite Jair Bolsonaro's ban from office. Markets initially focus on the prospect of privatization, looser state-company intervention, and a more business-friendly cabinet, tempered by institutional-polarization risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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