Possible scenario
Probe Mostly Contained
38% Chance
Lebanese authorities preserve the investigation without forcing an immediate confrontation with Hezbollah’s core command structure. The army, Internal Security Forces, and judiciary focus on the seized shipment and named Dahiyeh-linked intermediaries rather than announcing a sweeping anti-Hezbollah campaign.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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