Possible scenario
Institutional Standoff Deepens
30% Chance
Hezbollah escalates politically rather than militarily, using ministers, MPs, and allied media to challenge the legality of the explosives probe. The Lebanese state avoids a direct security clash but suffers another test of its authority after the March ban on Hezbollah military activity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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