Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Comes Under Strain
22% Chance
Israel treats the explosives seizure as evidence that Hezbollah is rebuilding military capacity despite the April cease-fire. Lebanese authorities try to prevent the legal dispute from becoming a cross-border security crisis, but the risk of limited Israeli action rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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