Possible scenario
Congress Blocks Agreement
20% Chance
A stronger-than-expected coalition could conclude that allowing Saudi enrichment up to 20% is politically untenable after the intelligence warning. This would damage the U.S.-Saudi package and reduce near-term prospects for American nuclear suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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