Possible scenario
Escalation Validates Bypass
22% Chance
Further attacks or insurance restrictions around Hormuz make route-specific freight hedging urgent. ICE's contracts gain relevance because the market needs prices for cargo flows that avoid the Strait entirely.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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