Possible scenario
Jackson Upsets Collins
31% Chance
Jackson converts the close poll into a late Democratic surge by nationalizing the race around Trump, abortion, health care, and working-class costs. Collins' moderate image weakens enough with Democratic-leaning independents to make the seat a Democratic pickup.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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