Possible scenario
Collins Wins Comfortably
17% Chance
The September poll understates Collins' eventual advantage as undecided independents move toward the incumbent. Jackson remains competitive but cannot turn a difficult national Senate map into a Maine pickup.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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