Possible scenario
UN Ceasefire Framework
38% Chance
Washington and Kyiv converge on a UN-backed framework that includes a monitored pause in attacks on energy infrastructure. Russia does not fully endorse a final settlement, but the prospect of lower refinery risk and easing diesel pressure drives an immediate risk-on reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.6%
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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