Possible scenario
Talks Stall Quietly
22% Chance
Negotiators keep channels open but fail to produce a binding ceasefire or energy-infrastructure pact. The market reaction is cautious rather than disorderly because Trump continues pressing Kyiv to avoid actions that worsen U.S. fuel prices.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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