Possible scenario
Limited Energy Truce
27% Chance
The talks produce a narrow de-escalation rather than a full peace deal. The most plausible compromise is a temporary halt to attacks on energy assets while broader territorial and security guarantees remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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