Possible scenario
Partial Embassy Exits
25% Chance
Ukraine's public denial is overtaken by individual Western decisions to move dependents, contractors or some diplomatic staff out of Kyiv. This would be a visible deterioration in risk perception, but not a full repeat of the February 2022 embassy closure cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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