Possible scenario
Warm Winter Base Case
45% Chance
NOAA's El Niño forecast holds, and forecasters continue to mark down U.S. heating-degree days for the 2026-27 winter. Natural gas prices stay under pressure as storage remains comfortable despite the latest build missing consensus.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Utilities +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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