Possible scenario
Damage Stays Contained
45% Chance
Satellite confirmation of a destroyed tank shows the Houthi strike caused visible damage, but not necessarily a broad refining outage. Saudi Aramco is likely to emphasize continuity at the Riyadh refinery while tightening site defenses and limiting disclosure of operational details.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- XOM-0.2%
- CVX-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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