Possible scenario
Contained Houthi Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis continue to claim attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, but most drones or missiles are intercepted. This outcome keeps a modest geopolitical premium in crude without implying a sustained disruption to Saudi output.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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