Possible scenario
Sustained Strike Campaign
42% Chance
Russia continues a pattern of missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine's energy grid through mid-October. The limited casualty count suggests no immediate strategic break, but repeated strikes keep Ukraine's air-defense needs and winter energy vulnerability in focus.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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