Possible scenario
Sustained Houthi Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis continue targeting Saudi oil and military infrastructure after a string of late-September and early-October attacks. The campaign does not fully disable Saudi exports, but it forces more air-defense activity, higher insurance costs, and repeated operational disruptions around Red Sea energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.