Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities and Aramco contain the damage at the Yanbu site, with no clear evidence of a major export outage. The East-West pipeline and redundant Red Sea logistics allow Riyadh to keep most crude and product flows intact despite the latest Houthi missile strike.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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