Possible scenario
Defensive Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia, potentially with U.S. intelligence or air-defense support, responds more visibly against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. The base case is contained retaliation, but the risk is that the Houthis answer with a broader salvo against Saudi energy sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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