Possible scenario
No Immediate Strike
28% Chance
Trump uses the strike review to intensify deterrent messaging while holding back from immediate kinetic action. This path remains plausible because Washington may prefer sanctions, cyber operations, intelligence sharing, and Saudi air-defense reinforcement before opening a new military phase.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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