Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Strikes
42% Chance
The White House chooses a bounded military response against Houthi missile, drone, and radar sites in Yemen while avoiding direct attacks on Iranian territory. This is the most likely path because Trump has publicly tied Iran to Houthi activity but still has incentives to prevent a broader Gulf war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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