Possible scenario
Starship Cadence Ramps
45% Chance
The first operational Starship mission validates SpaceX's transition from testing to high-volume satellite deployment. The most likely path is a steady ramp in launch cadence, allowing Starlink V3 capacity to expand faster than Falcon 9-era economics permitted.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Telecommunications +0.6%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX+5.2%
- VSAT-2.5%
- RKLB-1.9%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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