Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Crisis
34% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf partners expand naval escorts without immediately striking Iranian territory. Shipping remains costly and dangerous, but enough tankers transit to prevent a full physical shutdown of oil flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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