Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
22% Chance
Regional mediators persuade Iran and the United States to test a temporary pause in attacks and retaliatory action. Tehran uses the pause to press sanctions and security demands, while Washington prioritizes reopening commercial passage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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