Possible scenario
Slowdown Without Recession
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the labor market continues cooling but does not break. September’s 29,000-job gain fits the pattern of slower hiring, downward revisions, and employers avoiding large new commitments rather than launching a broad layoff cycle.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.6%
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.