Possible scenario
Recession Risk Builds
30% Chance
A material risk is that September’s weak gain is not an isolated print but part of a broader labor-market rollover. The timeline already includes a July job loss and sizable downward revisions, making investors sensitive to any sign that layoffs are spreading beyond pandemic overhiring.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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