Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
26% Chance
The meeting concludes that economic pressure alone is insufficient after Iranian arms enable further Houthi gains and Red Sea disruptions persist. Trump authorizes limited force, but the initial target set is calibrated to avoid a direct U.S.-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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