Possible scenario
AI Spend Backlash
22% Chance
Investors conclude that AI spending is growing faster than near-term revenue or productivity benefits. The reaction is concentrated in technology, internet platforms, and other crowded growth shares rather than a full macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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