Possible scenario
Targeted Tariff Package
25% Chance
Negotiations produce a limited tariff or quota framework aimed at products Washington believes are using Mexico to bypass China duties. The measures are sector-specific rather than a full trade rupture, but they still create near-term volatility for autos, electronics, and industrial suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Industrials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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