Possible scenario
Managed USMCA Compromise
45% Chance
Washington and Mexico City use the USMCA review channel to negotiate tighter reporting and customs enforcement without imposing broad new tariffs. This is the most likely outcome because both governments want to curb Chinese tariff circumvention while preserving nearshoring investment and North American supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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