Possible scenario
US Military Response
20% Chance
The IRGC's explicit claim of tanker hits increases pressure on Washington to restore deterrence and protect commercial shipping. A limited strike package or maritime interdiction campaign becomes plausible if another vessel is hit or US personnel are endangered.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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