Possible scenario
Diplomatic Reopening Path
25% Chance
The IRGC admission creates enough international pressure for Iran to accept a face-saving de-escalation channel. Tehran may keep political leverage over Hormuz, but partial reopening becomes plausible if sanctions relief, escrowed oil revenues, or inspection language enters talks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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