Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Crisis
42% Chance
Iran continues to threaten or strike shipping, but both Tehran and Washington avoid direct attacks on each other's territory. The most likely path is a dangerous but bounded maritime standoff with naval escorts, higher insurance costs, and intermittent tanker disruptions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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