Possible scenario
White House Defends
20% Chance
The White House decides the reporting is politically motivated or insufficiently documented and keeps Guilfoyle in place pending the State Department probe. This outcome is plausible because Trump has often defended loyal allies when allegations are not yet backed by public documentary evidence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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