Possible scenario
Yields Stabilize
32% Chance
After a historically large quarterly rise, some investors step in to buy duration at the highest yields since 2007. This scenario implies a pause rather than a reversal, with markets digesting the move and risk assets finding limited relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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