Possible scenario
Yields Extend Higher
38% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a continuation of the quarter-end repricing, with investors demanding more term premium after the Fed's September hike and persistent inflation risk. The move is not a crisis, but another leg higher in yields would weigh on rate-sensitive equities and credit.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.0%
- Technology -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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