Possible scenario
Risk-Off Reversal
18% Chance
A sharp equity or credit selloff could turn the Treasury market from inflation concern to flight-to-quality buying. In this path, yields fall, but the move is not bullish for risk assets because it reflects deteriorating growth or financial-stability worries.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Utilities +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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