Possible scenario
Technical Reversal
20% Chance
Markets could quickly reverse if investors conclude the sell imbalance was a one-off quarter-end pension flow. With no new deterioration in earnings, funding markets, or macro data, the next one to two sessions favor a relief rally.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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