Possible scenario
Restrictive Rates Persist
30% Chance
The ECB keeps policy restrictive because officials remain wary that the Iran-war energy spike could still feed into wages and services prices. Rehn's growth warning is framed as a reason for caution, not an immediate trigger for cuts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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