Possible scenario
Energy Stagflation Risk
20% Chance
Energy markets remain tight enough that the ECB's demand-destruction thesis is tested. The eurozone faces a worse trade-off: slower growth with still-elevated headline inflation, leaving policymakers with little room to ease quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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