Possible scenario
Talks Stay Constructive
25% Chance
Rubio's optimism proves directionally correct, but negotiators need more time to settle tariff schedules, agricultural access, and oil-related language. Markets largely look through the delay because both governments keep talks alive and avoid immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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