Possible scenario
Phase-One Deal Signed
50% Chance
Washington and New Delhi convert the recently finalized first phase into a signed agreement within days or weeks. The deal likely trims or suspends threatened tariff measures, creates purchase commitments, and defers the most contentious disputes over Russian oil and agriculture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.8%
- Healthcare +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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