Possible scenario
Deal Stalls Again
15% Chance
The apparent progress fades as negotiators fail to settle Russian crude purchases, agricultural imports, and tariff enforcement language. This would revive memories of the 2025 tariff threat and the October 2026 impasse, creating a modest risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.0%
- Healthcare -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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