Possible scenario
Republicans Close Ranks
20% Chance
House Republicans decide that impeaching Hegseth would validate months of Democratic attacks on Trump’s cabinet. The impeachment drive becomes a messaging campaign rather than a procedural threat, and the immediate policy impact is minimal.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- LMT-0.2%
- RTX-0.2%
- GD-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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