Possible scenario
Inquiry Stalls Hegseth
40% Chance
Democrats use the pivot to Pete Hegseth to keep scrutiny on Pentagon governance, Signal-message disclosures, and alleged retaliation inside the Defense Department. House Republican leaders avoid a binding impeachment vote, leaving Hegseth politically weakened but still in office.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
- LMT-0.6%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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