Possible scenario
Hegseth Leaves Pentagon
25% Chance
The impeachment push succeeds indirectly by making Hegseth too costly for the White House to defend. Trump accepts a resignation or removes him before the House can complete the process, trading a political fight for a reset at the Pentagon.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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